基于改進(jìn)決策功能派的智庫智囊團(tuán)評(píng)價(jià)IAO模型及指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建

摘要： [目的/意義]智庫建設(shè)離不開智囊團(tuán)的打造,智囊團(tuán)水平?jīng)Q定智庫的水平,依據(jù)決策功能派"最有效地表述具有非確定性的決策過程"的特點(diǎn)能較好吻合智庫智囊團(tuán)非確定性的決策過程的特點(diǎn),創(chuàng)新運(yùn)用其來研究智庫資政的最具原創(chuàng)動(dòng)力的核心部分——智囊團(tuán),不僅可以豐富智囊團(tuán)資政分析的理論視角,還可以通過模型和指標(biāo)的構(gòu)建來指導(dǎo)智庫智囊團(tuán)的資政實(shí)踐。[方法/過程]將決策功能派提出的行動(dòng)維度細(xì)分為思維和實(shí)踐兩方面、結(jié)果維度融入情報(bào)要素、根據(jù)影響智囊團(tuán)信息轉(zhuǎn)化為情報(bào)能力的要素,構(gòu)成評(píng)價(jià)的情報(bào)、行動(dòng)、結(jié)果三個(gè)維度的一級(jí)指標(biāo),同時(shí)形成評(píng)價(jià)智庫智囊團(tuán)的IAO三維立體模型。在二級(jí)指標(biāo)設(shè)計(jì)上,依照信息轉(zhuǎn)化為情報(bào)的增值原理量化了情報(bào)維度的自有信息量和自有信息量轉(zhuǎn)化效果;按照認(rèn)識(shí)指導(dǎo)實(shí)踐的理論從思維和行動(dòng)思考"行動(dòng)"維度構(gòu)成;并根據(jù)南京大學(xué)中國智庫研究與評(píng)價(jià)中心設(shè)計(jì)的MRPA智庫專家測評(píng)指標(biāo),量化了結(jié)果維度中智囊團(tuán)對(duì)決策的主觀期待價(jià)值,最后結(jié)合調(diào)研與SPSS分析定量化篩選核心指標(biāo),從而形成I、A、O三個(gè)維度具體的指標(biāo)體系。[結(jié)果/結(jié)論] IAO模型為描述和評(píng)價(jià)智囊團(tuán)非確定性的決策過程提供了一個(gè)新的可觀察和可操作的參照指標(biāo),強(qiáng)化了智庫發(fā)展中人的核心地位與作用,拓展了智庫評(píng)價(jià)的視野和維度。
[Purpose/significance] The construction of think tank is inseparable from the building of brain trust. The level of brain trust determines the level of think tank. According to the characteristics of the decision-making functional school,which is the most effective way to express the uncertain decision-making process,it can better match the characteristics of the uncertain decision-making process of brain trust and innovatively use it to study the brain trust,the most original core part of think tank management,can not only enrich the theoretical perspective of brain trust management analysis,but also guide the management practice of brain trust through the construction of model and indicators. [Method/process] The action dimension proposed by the decisionmaking functionalist is divided into two aspects: thinking and practice,result dimension is integrated into intelligence elements,and elements that influence the ability of think tank to translate information into intelligence. It constitutes the first-level indicators of the three dimensions of intelligence,action and result evaluated in this paper. At the same time,it forms a three-dimensional IAO model for evaluating brain trust. In the design of secondary indicators,according to the value-added principle of information transformation into intelligence,we quantify the transformation effect of information dimension's own information quantity and its own information quantity; in accordance with the theory of knowledge guidance practice,we construct the dimension of thinking and action thinking"action"; and in accordance with the expert evaluation index of MRPA think tank designed by the Center for Research and Evaluation of China think tank of Nanjing University,we quantify the subjective expectation value of the brain trust to decisionmaking in the result dimension. Finally,the core indicators were quantitatively screened by combining research and SPSS analysis,thus forming a specific index system of three dimensions: I,A and O. [Result/conclusion] The model of IAO provides a new observable and operable reference index for describing and evaluating the uncertain decision-making process of the brain trust,strengthening the core position and role of think tank in human development,and expands the vision and dimension of think tank evaluation.