有限理性下秘書問題的一類滿意解策略及仿真

摘要： 經(jīng)典秘書問題中以完全理性假設(shè)為前提的最優(yōu)解策略在現(xiàn)實(shí)應(yīng)用中缺乏實(shí)際操作性。對(duì)經(jīng)典秘書問題的理性假設(shè)進(jìn)行了弱化,以決策者的有限理性為前提通過假定決策者不能對(duì)所有選項(xiàng)進(jìn)行排序提出了解決秘書問題的一類滿意解策略,并推導(dǎo)了獲取滿意選項(xiàng)的概率計(jì)算公式。最后,結(jié)合計(jì)算機(jī)仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)研究了獲取滿意選項(xiàng)的概率與截止閾值間的關(guān)系。研究結(jié)果可為經(jīng)典秘書問題的擴(kuò)展提供一定的理論參考。
The optimal policies of the standard secretary problem are based on the hypothesis of complete rationality,which ignores the actual operability in reality.In this paper,the rationality hypothesis of the standard secretary problem was weakened,and a satisfying policy based on the hypothesis of bounded rationality was proposed.Besides,based on the premise of the bounded rationality of the decision maker,a kind of satisfactory solution strategy for solving secretarial problems was proposed by assuming that the decision maker cannot rank all the options,and the probability formula for obtaining satisfactory options was deduced.Moreover,the formula of probability calculation of the decision-maker to choose the satisfactory item was derived.Furthermore,the relationships between the probability of choosing the satisfactory item and the cutoff threshold were studied by conducting computer simulation experiments.