中國生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)增長的動力源泉——基于動能解構(gòu)視角的研究

摘要： 立足中國經(jīng)濟新舊動能亟待轉(zhuǎn)換的時代背景,本文選取2005—2016年省級服務(wù)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù),使用隨機前沿模型,設(shè)定超越對數(shù)生產(chǎn)函數(shù),以考察中國生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)增長的動力源泉,研究發(fā)現(xiàn),中國生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)TFP呈多階段的變動特征,技術(shù)進步是主要的正向源泉,行業(yè)增長屬于"技術(shù)主導型";以TFP為代表的創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動是生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)增長的主要動力,行業(yè)動能結(jié)構(gòu)相對合理;細分行業(yè)動能結(jié)構(gòu)差異較大,新舊動能的結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整必須兼顧行業(yè)特征;發(fā)達地區(qū)應(yīng)對外部沖擊及政策刺激的能力較強,創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動是主要的增長動能,其他地區(qū)新動能疲弱,舊動能又陷入粗放式增長,動能結(jié)構(gòu)有可能向不合理狀態(tài)演進。為此,需要緊抓時代機遇,提升行業(yè)創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動力,以生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)為新動能培育的"主戰(zhàn)場",并特別兼顧行業(yè)及區(qū)域的異質(zhì)性特征,"量體裁衣",制定針對性的新舊動能轉(zhuǎn)換戰(zhàn)略。
Against the background of driving force conversion, this paper selects the provincial-level data about the service sector from 2005 to 2016, uses the SFA model, and sets the trans-log production function to portray the source of growth for China's producer services. We found:(1) the trend of TFP in China's producer services is characterized by multi-stage changes, technological progress is the main positive driving force, and the growth of the industry is "technology-led";(2) innovation in TFP is the main driving force of producer services' growth, and the structure of driving force is reasonable;(3) the drive structure of niche industries varies greatly, and the conversion of driving force must take into account industry characteristics;(4) the developed areas can better respond to exogenous shocks and policy stimulus, and innovation is the main driving force, but other regions' new driving force is weak, and the old driving force has led to extensive growth, and the their drive structure may evolve to an irrational state. In response, this paper puts forward that we should seize the opportunity to promote innovation-driven development model, and take producer services as the important battlefield for the cultivation of new driving force. In particular, we must take into account the heterogeneity of different industries and regions and formulate targeted conversion strategies.