中國生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)發(fā)展水平的時空特征及其影響因素

摘要： 基于標準差橢圓、ESDA-GWR和空間計量方法,對2003—2015年中國286個地級單元生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)發(fā)展水平的時空特征及影響因素進行分析。結(jié)果顯示:2003年以來,我國生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)發(fā)展水平綜合指數(shù)有較大提升,從沿海向內(nèi)陸階梯狀遞減的趨勢逐漸增強,并形成沿海向內(nèi)陸的"中心—外圍"結(jié)構(gòu);空間上表現(xiàn)出在東—西方向上先極化后分散,南—北方向上先分散后極化的演變特征;城市間生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)存在較強的正相關性,雖強度有所減弱但仍非常顯著。影響因素結(jié)果顯示:服務生產(chǎn)率、開放程度、城市化率、產(chǎn)權結(jié)構(gòu)、知識資本密度對城市生產(chǎn)性服務業(yè)水平提高產(chǎn)生正向影響,而工業(yè)化程度對其產(chǎn)生抑制作用,擠出效應明顯。
With the development of social economy, the deepening of labor division and the progress of science and technology, producer services have achieved unprecedented development in the global scope, and to a certain extent, which has exerted a decisive influence on the development trend of global "service-oriented economy". As an important part of the service industry, producer services are not only the main aspects of industrial transformation and upgrading and economic power transformation in China, but also the breakthrough point of promoting supply-side structural reform and leading the new normal of the economy. Basing on standard deviation ellipse, esda-gwr and spatial econometric analysis, this study explored the temporal-spatial characteristics and influential factors of the producer services development level of China's 286 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2015. The research conclusions are as following: Firstly, since 2003, the comprehensive index of producer services development level has been greatly improved, and the trend of gradual decline from coastal areas to inland areas has been gradually strengthened. From the perspective of spatial pattern, it presents the "center-periphery" structure from the coast to the inland. Secondly, China's producer services development level shows obvious spatial evolution characteristics: in the east-west direction,it firstly polarizes and then disperses; in the south-north direction, it firstly disperses and then polarizes.Thirdly, China's producer services development displays a strong and positive spatial correlation between cities, although the intensity is weakened, it is still very significant. The spatial correlation pattern is characterized by the "echelon" structure of the east coast as a high concentration area, inland as a low concentration area. Finally, this paper introduces spatial econometric model and GWR when analyzing the influential factors of producer services.