財(cái)政分權(quán)與地區(qū)服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的門(mén)檻效應(yīng)分析——基于地方政府政績(jī)觀的邏輯分析

摘要： 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素中,政策性因素更明顯。針對(duì)我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的階段性、地區(qū)異質(zhì)性特征帶來(lái)的總量滯后問(wèn)題,本文從理論上分析財(cái)政分權(quán)影響地區(qū)服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)在作用機(jī)理,并利用1980-2016年30省份的面板數(shù)據(jù)考察財(cái)政分權(quán)對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的影響。理論分析表明,中國(guó)特色財(cái)政分權(quán)體制直接影響地方政府的政績(jī)觀,因而在產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展政策支持上,在不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的地區(qū)和階段,會(huì)區(qū)別性選擇更有利于體現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)政績(jī)考核的產(chǎn)業(yè),影響服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)地區(qū)的差異性和階段性。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果顯示,財(cái)政分權(quán)對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)具有重要影響,并呈現(xiàn)非線性特征;進(jìn)一步利用面板門(mén)檻模型的實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)財(cái)政分權(quán)的服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)存在雙重門(mén)檻,在低收入階段,財(cái)政分權(quán)加強(qiáng)會(huì)阻礙服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng),在中等收入階段,財(cái)政分權(quán)對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的阻礙作用明顯弱化,在高收入階段,財(cái)政分權(quán)顯著促進(jìn)服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)。本文解釋了長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展滯后問(wèn)題及個(gè)別地區(qū)服務(wù)業(yè)快速增長(zhǎng)的現(xiàn)象,同時(shí)認(rèn)為,隨著我國(guó)大部分地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平接近或超過(guò)高收入門(mén)檻,擴(kuò)大財(cái)政分權(quán)有利于服務(wù)業(yè)快速增長(zhǎng),因此,要進(jìn)一步完善財(cái)政分權(quán)制度,改進(jìn)地方官員考核機(jī)制,提升經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量。
Among the driving factors of China′s economic growth, the policy factor is more obvious. In view of the problem of total lag caused by the stage and regional heterogeneity of the growth of service industry in China, this paper theoretically analyzes the internal mechanism of fiscal decentralization affecting the growth of regional service industry, and uses panel data of 30 provinces from 1980 to 2016 to investigate the impact of fiscal decentralization on the growth of service industry.Theoretical analysis shows that the fiscal decentralization system with Chinese characteristics has a direct impact on the local government achievements. Therefore, in terms of industrial development policy support, in different regions and stages of economic development level, it will choose industries that are more conducive to reflecting the economic growth performance appraisal, and affect the differences and stages of service industry growth regions.The results of empirical analysis show that fiscal decentralization has an important impact on the growth of service industry, and presents nonlinear characteristics; further empirical analysis of panel threshold model shows that there are double thresholds for the growth effect of regional economic development on the fiscal decentralization of service industry;in the low-income stage, the strengthening of fiscal decentralization will hinder the growth of service industry, in the middle-income stage, the fiscal decentralization will affect the service industry and in the high-income stage, fiscal decentralization significantly will promote the growth of service industry. This paper explains the lagging development of China′s service industry and the rapid growth of service industry in some regions for a long time. At the same time, it holds that with the economic development level of most regions approaching or exceeding the high-income threshold, we should expand the rapid growth of the financial decentralization service industry. Therefore, we should further improve the financial decentralization system, improve the assessment mechanism of local officials, and improve the quality of economic development.