人群疏散中的恐慌傳播與干預(yù)策略研究

摘要： 通過(guò)NW小世界網(wǎng)絡(luò)刻畫(huà)行人社會(huì)關(guān)系,運(yùn)用Netlogo軟件實(shí)現(xiàn)多主體仿真,基于改進(jìn)社會(huì)力模型和恐慌傳染模型,考慮無(wú)恐慌干預(yù)與恐慌干預(yù)情境下的應(yīng)急疏散,模擬恐慌情緒傳播與人群疏散過(guò)程,以探究恐慌情緒傳播的影響因子與最優(yōu)干預(yù)策略。研究表明:群體恐慌情緒的傳播速度主要取決于網(wǎng)絡(luò)密集性、恐慌源位置和恐慌情緒系數(shù),網(wǎng)絡(luò)平均度越大、恐慌源越遠(yuǎn)離出口、恐慌情緒系數(shù)越大,則疏散效率越低;并提出3種恐慌干預(yù)策略,包括動(dòng)作干預(yù)、范圍干預(yù)與群眾干預(yù)策略。
This study implements multi-agent simulation based on the Netlogo software by using a modified NW small world network to capture the pedestrian social structure.This study builds a modified social force model and a panic contagion model.Considering both without and with the intervention strategy in crowd evacuation,the panic contagion in the crowd and the evacuation effect are simulated to study the influence factor of panic spreading and the optimal intervention strategies.The results show that the effects of panic contagion depend on the network density,the position of panic source and panic emotion coefficient.The lower evacuation efficiency is with the higher average degree of network,panic source being far from exits,and the higher panic coefficient.Furthermore,three intervention strategies are proposed including motion intervention,scope intervention and volunteer intervention strategy.