基于混頻數(shù)據(jù)的中國服務(wù)業(yè)景氣指數(shù)構(gòu)建與周期波動分析

摘要： 采用景氣分析法篩選出六個服務(wù)業(yè)一致指標(biāo),構(gòu)建中國服務(wù)業(yè)月度一致景氣指數(shù),對服務(wù)業(yè)的景氣波動進行詳細測定和分析。結(jié)果顯示,本世紀中國服務(wù)業(yè)增長已經(jīng)歷三輪周期波動,平均周期長度為52個月,總體呈現(xiàn)以上升期為主的"緩增速降"型非對稱特征。金融危機后,特別是經(jīng)濟進入新常態(tài)以來,服務(wù)業(yè)景氣呈現(xiàn)與此前不同的波動特征,對穩(wěn)增長和穩(wěn)就業(yè)起到了重要作用。
The paper choose 6 coincident indicators of service sector to construct the service sector coincident index in China based on the Mixed Frequency Dynamic Factor Model,to measure and analyze the characteristics of service sector cycles in this century. The results showthat the service sector of China experiences three short cycles in this century and each cycle lasts about 52 months on average. The service sector cycles also present asymmetric cycle characteristics which include " slowexpansion & rapid contraction".After the financial crisis,especially in the newnormal period,the cycles of service sector have maintained a more stable growth at lower level and narrowing fluctuations than that in the past,which makes more contribution to maintain stable economic growth and employment.