大數(shù)據(jù)支持下的酒店業(yè)空間格局演進(jìn)與預(yù)測(cè):武漢案例

摘要： 酒店互聯(lián)網(wǎng)預(yù)訂和電子導(dǎo)航廣泛使用所積累的海量公開數(shù)據(jù),為實(shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)時(shí)間序列和高精度的城市酒店業(yè)時(shí)空演化和預(yù)測(cè)提供可能?；诖髷?shù)據(jù)挖掘和處理技術(shù),獲取武漢市1953年以來的酒店業(yè)名錄數(shù)據(jù)、屬性數(shù)據(jù)、空間信息,并構(gòu)建多源數(shù)據(jù)的酒店業(yè)空間格局預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。利用GIS空間分析工具揭示了各類酒店的空間集聚特征和時(shí)空演化規(guī)律,預(yù)測(cè)了星級(jí)酒店、經(jīng)濟(jì)型連鎖酒店的未來選址區(qū)位與空間結(jié)構(gòu)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)星級(jí)酒店、經(jīng)濟(jì)型連鎖酒店以及酒店業(yè)總體空間布局均呈現(xiàn)顯著的空間正相關(guān),且空間集聚程度不斷強(qiáng)化;(2)兩類酒店的時(shí)空演化格局在空間擴(kuò)張范圍、空間擴(kuò)張類型、酒店微觀行為等方面具有異質(zhì)特征;(3)地理探測(cè)器因子解釋力分析支持了包括社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)、交通便捷程度、商業(yè)繁榮程度、公共服務(wù)水平等一級(jí)指標(biāo),共計(jì)11項(xiàng)二級(jí)指標(biāo)的預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo)體系;(4)兩類酒店的空間格局預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果均呈現(xiàn)圈層結(jié)構(gòu),且以長(zhǎng)江為軸對(duì)稱分布,但經(jīng)濟(jì)型連鎖酒店未來布局的核心區(qū)與過渡區(qū)中心性更強(qiáng),可選區(qū)位更為集中;(5)酒店業(yè)空間結(jié)構(gòu)演化影響機(jī)理中,穩(wěn)定型因子、動(dòng)態(tài)型因子和隨機(jī)型因子分別通過約束機(jī)制、供需機(jī)制、觸發(fā)機(jī)制作用于酒店企業(yè),再經(jīng)過個(gè)體積累效應(yīng)和時(shí)間積累效應(yīng),最終形成酒店業(yè)空間演化動(dòng)態(tài)特征;(6)文章形成了一套較為可行的城市酒店業(yè)空間格局動(dòng)態(tài)展演和預(yù)測(cè)路徑,可為相關(guān)主題研究提供借鑒,也可為城市管理者、酒店投資者提供實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)。
The massive open data accumulated by hotel Internet booking and electronic navigation provide the possibility for long time series and high precision research on urban hotel industry temporalspatial evolution and prediction. Taking Wuhan as a case, based on big data mining and processing technology, this paper gets the hotel list, attributes data and spatial information of Wuhan hotel industry since 1953, and builds the multi-source data forecast database of hotel industry spatial pattern. What is more, using GIS spatial analysis tools, this paper reveals the spatial agglomeration characteristics and temporal spatial evolution of star hotels and economic chain hotels in Wuhan, and predicts the location and spatial structure in the future. This study found that:(1) the spatial distribution of the star hotels,the economic chain hotels and overall hotel industry all shows significant spatial positive correlation,and the degree of spatial agglomeration is continuously strengthened.(2) The temporal-spatial evolution pattern of star hotels and economic chain hotels is heterogeneous in terms of spatial expansion scope, spatial expansion type and hotel micro behavior. In the early stage of star hotels,contact diffusion is dominant, and the later stage is dominated by jumping and diffusion. The economic chain hotel has been dominated by contact diffusion. Compared with the star hotels, the location and layout strategy of the economic chain hotels shows a stronger centrality. In the recent ten years, the new economic hotel chains are almost located in the main urban area.(3) The factor interpretation analysis of geographer supported 4 kinds of first level indicators including social economic foundation, traffic convenience, business prosperity and public service level, and a total of 11 two level indicators of hotel spatial pattern prediction index system.(4) The spatial pattern prediction results of star hotels and economic chain hotels have common characteristics, forming a circle structure and axisymmetric distribution in the Yangtze River. The central city is the core area. The transition area between the second ring road and the three ring road is the transitional area, the periphery is the fringe area, and the new towns are the spatial form of punctuate high value area. At the same time, there are significant differences. The core area of the future layout of the economic chain hotel and the transition zone are more central, and the optional location is more fragmented.(5) Stability factor, dynamic factor and trigger factor respectively through the restraint mechanism, the mechanism of supply and demand,triggering mechanism in the hotel business, and through the accumulation of individual effects and time accumulation effect, and ultimately the formation and evolution of the dynamic characteristics of the hotel industry space.(6) This paper builds a feasible path which can reveal, as well as, predict the dynamic process of urban hotel industry spatial pattern. The feasible path provides reference for the relevant research topics and practical guidance for city managers and hotel investors.